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Residents of the Big Apple will find out who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and protects the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has become an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a platform of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by significant margins in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to Americans' anger at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the party arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, achieve a remarkable comeback win, it could reinforce the party's current model of cautious, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A New York defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an force of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced difficulties in recent days, after footage surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a DSA gathering in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd