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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal developed with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, especially given Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature is expected to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Several concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He stated that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize more land following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would constitute guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Moscow is near accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not seen the details of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept forces of Nato countries operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. A key demand involves Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security units instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a special economic area might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” said the president, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he concluded.